A multilevel analysis of the effect of cocaine price on cocaine use among arrestees

Abstract

Using data drawn from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring Program, from the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence, and from the 1990 Census, this study examined whether an arrestee's probability of testing positive for cocaine use varied across aggregate levels of cocaine price. Results from a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling analysis revealed that in cities where the price of cocaine was relatively high, arrestees had a lower probability of testing positive for cocaine use. Specifically, a 10 percent increase in the price of cocaine was associated with a 3 percent decrease in the odds that an arrestee would test positive for cocaine use. Findings also showed that individuals arrested for income-generating crimes did not have a higher probability of testing positive for cocaine when the price of cocaine was relatively high. Thus, it appeared that higher cocaine prices were not inducing users to amplify their criminal activity in order to finance a more costly drug addiction. Finally, results failed to furnish support for the hypothesis that individuals substituted opiates or marijuana when cocaine became more expensive.