A multi-group model for estimating the transmission rate of hand, foot and mouth disease in mainland China.

Abstract

In order to access the influence of different age groups on the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), we established the multi-group model with migration following the epidemiology of HFMD. The basic reproduction number of the HFMD epidemic model was calculated by the next generation operator method. According to China's national surveillance data on HFMD, we fitted the model parameters and estimated the transmission rates among different age groups. Besides, we carried out sensitivity analysis for the basic reproduction number to find some valuable regulatory measures. Our findings showed that the children under three years of age were indeed at high risk and adult group who had more contacts with children had a crucial influence on the spread of HFMD.