Abstract
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), associated with more than 20 disease-causing enteroviruses, is one of the major public health problems in mainland China, and the unique vaccine available is for enterovirus 71 (EV71). In this paper, we propose a new epidemic model to investigate the effect of EV71 vaccination on the spread of HFMD with multiple pathogenic viruses in mainland China. In addition, suitable periodic transmission functions are designed, with a two-year period and taking into consideration the effects of opening and closing of schools. After defining the basic reproduction number R0, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0<1, and there exists at least one positive periodic solution and the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1. We use the model to simulate the HFMD reported data in mainland China from January 2008 to June 2019. The numerical experiments show that increasing the vaccinated rate can effectively control the spread of HFMD in mainland China, yet the disease does not become extinct. Moreover, if we can control the baseline contact rate of infectious individuals and the recovery rate of symptomatic infectious individuals under certain conditions, which can be achieved by improving protective measures and medical conditions, then the disease will be eliminated.
Highlights
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease among infants and children caused by intestinal viruses of the Picornaviridae family. ere exist many types of HFMD virus, such as coxsackievirus A5, A10, A16, A19 types and enterovirus 71 (EV71) type, and so on
Since 2008, the government has classi ed it as a class III infectious disease in the National Stationary Noti able Communicable Diseases (NSNCD) [8], and the monthly cases have been archived by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) [9]. e main viruses causing HFMD in mainland China are coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) and EV71, and the proportions of HFMD cases caused by CVA16 and EV71 are about 30% and 44%, respectively [10,11,12]
In order to model the influence of EV71 vaccination on the spread of HFMD with multiple pathogenic viruses in mainland China, we divide the total individuals into two different groups, the unvaccinated and the vaccinated, in modeling
Summary
Foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease among infants and children caused by intestinal viruses of the Picornaviridae family. ere exist many types of HFMD virus, such as coxsackievirus A5, A10, A16, A19 types and EV71 type, and so on. From a practical point of view, clarifying the mechanisms that link seasonal environmental changes to disease dynamics may aid in forecasting the long-term health risks, crucial in developing an effective public health program and in setting objectives, and utilizing limited resources more effectively For these reasons, the other approach is a nonautonomous differential equation model, which considers periodic transmission rates. En, we evaluate the basic reproduction number R0 to analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and use the proposed model to fit the monthly reported data of HFMD in mainland China from January 2008 to June 2019.
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