A Multicriteria Intelligence Aid Methodology Using MCDA, Artificial Intelligence, and Fuzzy Sets Theory

Abstract

Intelligence is increasingly relevant today in both military and business intelligence contexts. Business executives, military, and governments have more large datasets and meet difficulties in anticipating threat/competitor future decisions. Decision anticipation is desirable because it will enhance situation understanding and then will limit the surprise effect and favor more appropriate reactions and decision‐making. Generating and evaluating competitor/threat actions is a very challenging problem because of the uncertainty, incompleteness, and ambiguity associated with it. This paper extends the multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methodology to the context of intelligence analysis and proposes the main pillars of a novel methodology called “Multicriteria Intelligence Aid” (MCIA). More specifically, this paper addresses how can we adapt MCDA to the context of intelligence analysis and how can we use existent methods and techniques from MCDA, artificial intelligence, and fuzzy sets theory to build this methodology. The paper presents the MCIA steps, which consist of (i) structuring the competitor/threat decision problem, (ii) handling imperfect data, (iii) modeling the analyst’s risk attitude, and (iv) aggregating the performance of the generated potential actions. An illustration of the methodology is provided in the military context. Results show that the novel methodology is applicable and provides interesting and valuable results.