A Multi-Scenario analysis method for collapse risks due to initial local failure of building structures

Abstract

Traditional progressive failure analysis is usually computationally expensive and can only be used to analyze a limited number of cases. The resulting mechanical data on structural components are not suitable for displaying collapses or providing an intuitive reference for emergency management. In addition, numerical models do not incorporate uncertain factors in failure development, which makes it difficult to deduce multiple scenarios of future. This paper proposes a multi-scenario progressive failure analysis method based on a sub-region model for emergency management. Firstly, the material model is augmented with a possibility factor to evaluate the failure of components based on internal forces, and thereby deduce different progressive collapse scenarios. Secondly, the building structure is divided into several sub-regions based on the damage correlation of components, so that the degree of regional collapse can be demonstrated at a more macroscopic scale, which is more suitable for emergency management. By analyzing typical failure scenarios, the collapse evolution rules at the sub-region level can be summarized, which can be used for deducing the results of multiple collapse scenarios rapidly. The proposed method can identify the weak positions of buildings, deduce highly probable progressive damage scenarios, and exhibit macro collapse processes. The multi-scenario analysis results can serve as a reference for collapse safety management in risk pre-assessment and help to reconstruct the collapse process in post-disaster analysis.