A Multi-Point Joint Prediction Model for High-Arch Dam Deformation Considering Spatial and Temporal Correlation

Abstract

Deformation monitoring for mass concrete structures such as high-arch dams is crucial to their safe operation. However, structure deformations are influenced by many complex factors, and deformations at different positions tend to have spatiotemporal correlation and variability, increasing the difficulty of deformation monitoring. A novel deep learning-based monitoring model for high-arch dams considering multifactor influences and spatiotemporal data correlations is proposed in this paper. First, the measurement points are clustered to capture the spatial relationship. Successive multivariate mode decomposition is applied to extract the common mode components among the correlated points as spatial influencing factors. Second, the relationship between various factors and deformation components is extracted using factor screening. Finally, a deep learning prediction model is constructed with stacked components to obtain the final prediction. The model is validated based on practical engineering. In nearly one year of high-arch dam deformation prediction, the root mean square error is 0.344 and the R2 is 0.998, showing that the modules within the framework positively contribute to enhancing prediction performance. The prediction results of different measurement points as well as the comparison results with benchmark models show its superiority and generality, providing an advancing and practical approach for engineering structural health monitoring, particularly for high-arch dams.