Abstract
Reserve capacity is the core of reliability analysis based on road network capacity. This article optimizes its bi-level programming model: the upper-level model has added service level coefficient and travel time limit, which realizes the unification of capacity and travel time reliability analysis to a certain extent. Stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) model based on origin has been selected as the lower-level model, which added capacity constraints to optimize distribution results, and allows the evaluation of reliability to be continued. Through the SUE model, the iterative step size of the method of successive averages can be optimized to improve the efficiency of the algorithm. After that, the article designs the algorithm flow of reliability analysis based on road network capacity, and verifies the feasibility of the designed algorithm with an example. Finally, combined with the conclusion of reliability analysis, this article puts forward some effective methods to improve the reliability of the urban road network.
Highlights
Road network reliability is the application of reliability theory in the field of transportation, which first appeared in system engineering
Reliability analysis based on road network capacity can effectively predict the growth of traffic volume, what the road network can undertake in the future, and it can help to judge whether the traffic can be sustainable
The first stage focuses on the road network connectivity reliability, which mainly studies the accessibility from one node to another [1]
Summary
Road network reliability is the application of reliability theory in the field of transportation, which first appeared in system engineering. Taking the path travel time reliability analysis as an example, the actual calculation is the probability that the time used to select the path is less than the travel time threshold, it can be obtained by Pi = P(ti ≤ tik ), where ti is the actual travel time of path i, tik is the acceptable threshold, and is Pi the reliability of path i The analysis of this stage focuses on the results of road network allocation, but more consideration is given to the combing of individual paths, and the analysis results cannot directly guide the direction of road network optimization. Referring to the methods of Aggarwal, Chan and Li, Anthony Chen et al defined the reliability of road network capacity based on the random allocation model [14,15,16,17]: the probability that the road network successfully meets the demand of OD connection strength, and designed the algorithm based on the. Combined with the analysis results, the article puts forward measures and suggestions to improve the reliability of the road network
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