Abstract
This paper proposes a novel framework for the analysis of integrated energy systems (IESs) exposed to both stochastic failures and “shock” climate-induced failures, such as those characterizing NaTech accidental scenarios. With such a framework, standard centralized systems (CS), IES with distributed generation (IES-DG) and IES with bidirectional energy conversion (IES+P2G) enabled by power-to-gas (P2G) facilities can be analyzed. The framework embeds the model of each single production plant in an integrated power-flow model and then couples it with a stochastic failures model and a climate-induced failure model, which simulates the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding) driven by climate change. To illustrate how to operationalize the analysis in practice, a case study of a realistic IES has been considered that comprises two combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT), a nuclear power plant (NPP), two wind farms (WF), a solar photovoltaicS (PV) field and a power-to-gas station (P2G). Results suggest that the IESs are resilient to climate-induced failures.
Highlights
Academic Editors: Mohammad JafariInfrastructures providing water, energy, gas and transportation, etc., to citizens and industries are highly interconnected
The remainder of this paper is as follows: Section 2 presents the novel modeling and analysis framework devoted to the simulation of natural technological (NaTech) events under climate change that embeds the engine that injects into the integrated energy systems (IESs) power-flow model the climatic and stochastic stress conditions, which the system must withstand
We consider an IES composed of different production plants that can be allocated in three possible system layouts, i.e., a standard centralized systems (CS), an IES implementing energy hub (IES-DG)
Summary
Infrastructures providing water, energy, gas and transportation, etc., to citizens and industries are highly interconnected. We present a novel modeling framework in which both stochastic and “shock” climate-induced failures (i.e., NaTech events) are jointly considered for the analysis and Alberto-Jesus Perea-Moreno. We analyze the IES+P2G layout exposed to flooding as the climate change-induced shock event of interest (because it is considered as a major threat to infrastructure integrity [16]), and model its severity (i.e., in relation to the sea level rise) increase within future climate change horizons (i.e., in 2040, 2070 and 2100). The remainder of this paper is as follows: Section 2 presents the novel modeling and analysis framework devoted to the simulation of NaTech events under climate change that embeds the engine that injects into the IES power-flow model the climatic and stochastic stress conditions, which the system must withstand.
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