A Methodology to Evaluate the Real-Time Stability of Submarine Slopes under Rapid Sedimentation

Abstract

Rapid sedimentation is widely recognized as a crucial factor in initiating the instability of submarine slopes. Once the slope fails, the subsequent landslide poses a significant threat to the safety of underwater infrastructures and potentially leads to severe damage to seabed pipelines, offshore foundations, and oil and gas exploitation wells. However, there is currently a lack of numerical methods to effectively assess the real-time stability of submarine slopes under rapid sedimentation. This study firstly employs a calibrated finite element (FE) model-change approach to reproduce the rapid sedimentation processes and proposes a concise method to calculate the safety factors for the real-time stability of sedimenting submarine slopes. Further, a parametric analysis is carried out to evaluate the effect of varying sedimentation rates on slope stability, and the critical sedimentation rate is numerically solved. Moreover, the effect of seismic events with different occurring times on the stability of rapidly sedimenting slopes is investigated in depth, and the most critical seismic loading pattern among various acceleration combinations is achieved. The results indicate that the presence of weak layers during sedimentation is a critical factor contributing to slope instability. The introduced rate of decrease in the safety factor proves valuable in assessing slope safety over a specific period. As the occurrence time of seismic events is delayed, the seismic resistance of the slope decreases, increasing the likelihood of shallower sliding surfaces. The findings offer insights into the mechanisms by which rapid sedimentation influences the stability of submarine slopes and provide valuable insights for predicting the potential instability of rapidly sedimenting slopes under specific seismic activity levels.