A Method Based on Artificial Intelligence That Predicts Arabica Coffee Yield by Analyzing Abiotic Factors and the Prevalence of Coffee Leaf Rust

Abstract

Coffee is a perennial crop that harbors infections throughout the plant, which may worsen illness under favorable circumstances. Coffee leaf rust, a widespread coffee disease and Arabica is susceptible to leaf rust. Disease incidence and severity depend on abiotic variables. Cloudy and constant South-West monsoon weather (June–September) promotes coffee leaf rust growth. In this five-model study, an Extra Tree and Gradient Boosting regression model predicted coffee crop output in Chikamagaluru, Karnataka, with the least error utilizing biotic and abiotic factors. We investigated additional tree, gradient boosting, RF, Decision Tree, and KNN models using biotic and abiotic predictors. Used the independent testing dataset's MSE, MAE, RMSE Root mean square errors, and R-squared errors to compare model performance. The extra tree (R²=0.98 kg/ha ˉ¹ and RMSE = 7.96 kg/ha ˉ¹) and gradient boosting (R²=0.96 kg/ha ˉ¹ and RMSE = 10.96 kg/ha ˉ¹) regression models used Group 1 and 2 characteristics as predictor variables and different parameter fine tuning functions to estimate coffee yield most accurately. Compared to the less precise probabilistic models utilized in this work, such as Random Forest, decision tree, and KNN models, shown in the results section. The optimum weather parameter for coffee production forecasts and biotic-CLR incidence data outperformed random forest, decision tree, and K-Nearest Neighbor models.