A Mechanistic Model Based on Statistics for the Prediction of a Converter’s End-Point Molten Steel Temperature

Abstract

With the high efficiency and automation of converter smelting, it is becoming increasingly important to predict and control the endpoint temperature of the converter. Based on the heat balance, a model for predicting the molten pool temperature in a converter was established. Moreover, the statistical method of multiple linear regression was used to calculate the converter heat loss coefficient, greatly improving the prediction accuracy of the mechanistic model. Using the model, the oxidation process for each element in the molten pool, the melting processes of scrap, and the flux were also calculated. The model could better approximate the actual smelting process. Data from a 130 t converter were collected to validate the model. When the error ranges were limited to ±20 and ±15 °C, the model hit rates were 96 and 86.7%, respectively.