Abstract

With climate change and increasingly fierce international trade competition, upgrading the global value chains (GVCs) under the sustainable development mode is becoming a key transformation for China's wood industry. This study applies system dynamics theory to build a model of upgrading and evolution of the GVC of the wood industry based on sustainable green growth and uses Vensim PLE software for system simulation. The results demonstrate that (1) under the framework of sustainable green growth, the optimization of industry structure and security of resource supply play an important role in promoting the position of the GVC. (2) improving technological innovation capacity, plantation forest stock, carbon emission reduction intensity, and wage growth is essential to upgrade the wood industry's position in the GVC. (3) different policy implementations have different impacts on the coupled and coordinated development of the system, and implementing innovation-driven policies is the optimal realization path to promote the synergistic upgrading of the GVC. The findings enrich the holistic and systematic study of the evolution of GVC upgrading in traditional manufacturing industries and provide a fresh perspective for assisting the wood industry in realizing GVC upgrading under a sustainable green growth model.

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