A maximum entropy and GIS approach to predict potential habitat for northern bobwhites in the Black Belt prairie physiographic region of Alabama

Abstract

Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) populations have sustained precipitous declines throughout their range. The North American Breeding Bird Survey for Alabama indicates a rate of decline of over 6% per year since 1966. Declining bobwhite populations have been associated with large-scale habitat loss and a reduction in habitat quality due to advances in ecological succession, intensive monoculture agriculture, and intensive timber management practices. Once a very diverse region, modern land-use practices throughout the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region have created a simplified landscape that have left few places where bobwhites can live and thrive. Despite extensive research on bobwhites, there is insufficient knowledge on the spatial distribution of bobwhite habitat on a regional scale, including the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region. Knowing the spatial distribution of suitable bobwhite habitat will allow conservation planners to prioritize efforts and direct limited resources to achieve conservation goals for the region. The goals of this study were to 1) evaluate the maximum entropy modeling approach for predicting northern bobwhite habitat in the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region, and 2) develop a northern bobwhite habitat suitability map for the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region. The results showed that deciduous 1.8 km (1.8 km is the dispersal distance of bobwhites) neighborhood was the most important habitat variable, followed by water 1.8 km neighborhood. Developed 1.8 km neighborhood was the most important anthropogenic variable, ranking third in overall importance. The resultant model denotes potential habitat in the region and forms the basis for using the maximum entropy and geographic information system approach to predict suitable habitat and prioritize areas for conservation.