Abstract
A stochastic model designed to simulate transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in a free-ranging pig population under various intervention scenarios is presented. The model was used to assess the relative impact of the timing of the implementation of different control strategies on disease-related mortality. The implementation of biosecurity measures was simulated through incorporation of a decay function on the transmission rate. The model predicts that biosecurity measures implemented within 14 days of the onset of an epidemic can avert up to 74% of pig deaths due to ASF while hypothetical vaccines that confer 70% immunity when deployed prior to day 14 of the epidemic could avert 65% of pig deaths. When the two control measures are combined, the model predicts that 91% of the pigs that would have otherwise succumbed to the disease if no intervention was implemented would be saved. However, if the combined interventions are delayed (defined as implementation from > 60 days) only 30% of ASF-related deaths would be averted. In the absence of vaccines against ASF, we recommend early implementation of enhanced biosecurity measures. Active surveillance and use of pen-side diagnostic assays, preferably linked to rapid dissemination of this data to veterinary authorities through mobile phone technology platforms are essential for rapid detection and confirmation of ASF outbreaks. This prediction, although it may seem intuitive, rationally confirms the importance of early intervention in managing ASF epidemics. The modelling approach is particularly valuable in that it determines an optimal timing for implementation of interventions in controlling ASF outbreaks.
Highlights
African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease in domestic pigs caused by a DNA virus of the Asfarviridae family [1,2]
African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a resistant and stable virus capable of persisting in the environment and in pig products over a wide range of temperatures and pH for a prolonged period of time thereby enabling its transmission over long distances [2]
We develop and parameterise a mathematical model to simulate the transmission of ASFV
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease in domestic pigs caused by a DNA virus of the Asfarviridae family [1,2]. ASF is endemic in most parts of Africa and its recent introduction into Georgia and subsequent spread to Russia and the European Union [3] renders it a global animal health problem that needs to be dealt with urgently [4]. It is a highly contagious disease transmitted by either direct contact between infected and susceptible pigs or indirectly through contact with infectious material in the environment and on fomites [5]. Peracute and acute syndromes are characterised by high fever, loss of appetite, haemorrhages and cyanosis on the skin and internal organs with mortality rates of up to 100% in naïve pig herds [2,4,7,8]
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