Abstract
Globally, the bacterial genus Campylobacter is one of the leading causes of human gastroenteritis, with its primary route of infection being through poultry meat. The application of biosecurity measures is currently limited by a lack of understanding of the transmission dynamics within a flock. Our work is the first to undertake a mathematical modeling approach to Campylobacter population dynamics within a flock of broilers (chickens bred specifically for meat). A system of stochastic differential equations is used to model the routes of infection between co-housed birds. The presented model displays the strong correlation between housing density and Campylobacter prevalence, and shows how stochastic variation is the driving factor determining which strains of Campylobacter will emerge first within a flock. The model also shows how the system will rapidly select for phenotypic advantages, to quickly eliminate demographically-weaker strains. A global sensitivity analysis is performed, highlighting that the growth and death rate of other native bacterial species likely contributes the greatest to preventing flock outbreaks, presenting a promising approach to hypothesizing new methods of combatting disease transmission.
Highlights
Campylobacter is recognized as the leading cause of human gastroenteritis in the developed world (Ghareeb et al, 2013)
While several transmission routes have been noted over the years (Nauta et al, 2005), poultry meat has been overwhelmingly attributed as the leading route of ingestion for humans [EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ), 2011]
The implication is that housing a greater number of birds causes more homogeneous dynamical behavior, and the wide variety of Campylobacter expression seen in the isolated bird experiments of Achen et al (1998) is not so commonly observed in experiments with group-housed birds (Van Gerwe et al, 2005)
Summary
The bacterial genus Campylobacter is one of the leading causes of human gastroenteritis, with its primary route of infection being through poultry meat. Our work is the first to undertake a mathematical modeling approach to Campylobacter population dynamics within a flock of broilers (chickens bred for meat). A system of stochastic differential equations is used to model the routes of infection between co-housed birds. The presented model displays the strong correlation between housing density and Campylobacter prevalence, and shows how stochastic variation is the driving factor determining which strains of Campylobacter will emerge first within a flock. A global sensitivity analysis is performed, highlighting that the growth and death rate of other native bacterial species likely contributes the greatest to preventing flock outbreaks, presenting a promising approach to hypothesizing new methods of combatting disease transmission
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
