Abstract
Markov chain models have been applied for a long time to simulate forest dynamics based on transitions in matrices of tree diameter classes or areas of forest size and structure types. To date, area-based matrix models have been applied assuming either even-aged or uneven-aged forest management. However, both management systems may be applied simultaneously due to land-use constraints or the rationality of combining the systems, which is called any-aged management. We integrated two different Markov chain models, one for even-aged and another for uneven-aged forest management, in an area-based approach to analyze wood supply from any-aged forest management. We evaluate the impacts of parameterizing the model based on available data sets, namely permanent and temporary Finnish National Forest Inventory (NFI) sample plots and a plot-level simulator to determine transitions due to different types of thinning treatments, and present recommendations for the related methodological choices. Our overall observation is that the combined modelling chain simulated the development of both the even- and uneven-aged forest structures realistically. Due to the flexibility of the implementation, the approach is very well suited for situations where scenario assumptions need to be varied according to expected changes in silvicultural practices or land-use constraints, for example.
Highlights
The demand for wood-based biomass is predicted to increase globally [1,2,3,4]
The results are presented from two viewpoints: first, we evaluate the choices related to the parameterization of the EFDM-specific state space, activities, and their transition probabilities
The harvesting target of the BAU scenario could be achieved with an even level of harvests, regardless of whether the activity probabilities were adjusted to this level by iterating between the simulation steps (Figure 6, left column) or using activity probabilities set in the beginning of the simulation (Figure 7, left column)
Summary
The demand for wood-based biomass is predicted to increase globally [1,2,3,4]. Many other uses of forests should be considered. The conflicting goals and uses may reduce the amount of forests available for wood supply (FAWS) through land segregation. The amount of forest not available for wood supply (FNAWS) varies a lot between countries [5,6]. In addition to or instead of segregation, so called multiple-use [7] or integrated [8] forest management has become more commonly applied [9]. From the wood supply point of view, these forests can be referred to as forests with restrictions on availability for wood supply (FRAWS)
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