A machine-learning framework for the simulation of nuclear deflection of Planet-Killer-Asteroids

Abstract

As detection capabilities in astronomy have dramatically improved over the last two decades, concerns over Planet-Killer-Asteroids (PKAs) have become widespread, with nuclear weapons being proposed to destroy or deflect asteroids that are on a short-term projected collision course with Earth. Two main mitigation strategies have been proposed: •Case 1: Break up an incoming asteroid into smaller pieces that will disperse widely, resulting in smaller-scale, less detrimental, Earth-impacts or•Case 2: Deflect an incoming asteroid trajectory to avoid collision altogether. While the two strategies are not mutually exclusive, deflection is a safer strategy, ideally by harnessing all of the released energy from a nuclear device to move the asteroid as a rigid body. However, this case may not be always possible, since the strength of the energy release may break up the asteroid. In this work, the dynamical response of a PKA to a series of ultra-high energy impulses, such as those generated by nuclear devices, is formulated. A rapid iterative Discrete Element Method (DEM) method is developed to describe the deflection and potential breakup of the PKA as a function of a material bonding strength parameter within the asteroid and the magnitude of the applied impulse. The use of DEM allows for fragmentation of the PKA and the ability to compute the trajectories and distribution of the resulting debris field. Finally, a machine-learning algorithm is then developed and combined with the DEM approach to optimize the pulsation strategy for maximum possible safety and success.