A Looming Debt Crisis Narrative for Developing Countries: Consequences and Policy Implications

Abstract

With the global financial crisis, there was a surge in the levels of public debt resulting from the economic downturn and many developing countries resorting to external debt to meeting their civic obligations. This paper examines the debt problem in developing countries in Africa between 2010 and 2017. The study employed the use of measurement of government’s indebtedness as well as sustainability of the debt measure to evaluate the ratio of gross public debt to the gross domestic product and to ascertain how well the borrowed funds are used by the government. Importantly, the change in ratio of public debt to GDP was examined over a 4-year period (2010-2016). Three measures were used in analysis of the data, ratio of debt to GDP, ratio of dynamic debt to GDP ratio and sustainability of debt levels. The research finds that there is a growing public debt in developing countries that is fueled by external debt and the global financial crisis. As a result of a rapid increase in public debt, one third of developing countries in Africa are at high risks of debt distress. Some of these countries are Chad, Eritrea, Mozambique, South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe. By 2016, the sub-Saharan countries gross public debt to GDP ratio had doubled. This increase in debt should have raised all sorts of red flags as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund should have sounded the alarm. Furthermore, the results reveal that three of the biggest countries in Africa, Nigeria, South Africa and Angola have been classified as moderate debt risk distress. While the following countries in 2018 have breached the debt to GDP ratio benchmarked at 50 percent mark Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Cameroon and Zambia. The study further recommends that these countries should mind their public spending activities.