A long-term multi-region load-dispatch model based on grid structures for the optimal planning of China’s power sector

Abstract

China's power sector has experienced rapid development over the past decade. With the clean energy targets and carbon mitigation objectives proposed by the government as well as rapid development of power transmission infrastructure, future potential pathways for the expansion of China's power sector are worth assessing. In this paper, a mathematical model, named the Long-term Multi-region Load-dispatch Grid-structure-based (LoMLoG) has been developed and a “most-likely” scenario has been created that delivers insights into optimal regional power generation, transmission and emissions profiles. The results confirm the importance of clean energy targets in driving deployment of renewable energy and maximizing its contribution to carbon mitigation of China’s power sector. In addition, the development of power transmission infrastructure will significantly influence regional power generation and transmission profiles. Last but not least, carbon mitigation approaches in the long term are discussed, and rational methods of allocating future carbon caps are presented.