A Longitudinal Ecological Study of How Unemployment and University Proximity Shaped Adult Community College Enrollment in Arkansas from 1999 Through 2018

Abstract

ABSTRACT We examined how unemployment and proximity to public universities affected the rate of adult (25+) enrollment in public two-year community colleges in Arkansas between 1999 and 2008. To examine how the proliferation of online education may have introduced competition for place-bound adult students, we also examined how unemployment effects changed over time. Generalized estimating equations were used to create growth models from state and national data for all 75 Arkansas counties between 1999 and 2018. Results illustrated that unemployment was positively associated with the overall rate of adults attending community colleges, but its effect varied over time. From 1999 to 2008, higher unemployment amplified the rate of adult participation, whereas from 2009 to 2012 higher unemployment attenuated the rate. Between 2013 and 2018, unemployment was unrelated to the rate of adult community college enrollment. Relatedly, closer proximity to a university was associated with an overall lower rate of adult community college enrollment. Findings suggest that the traditional relationship between unemployment and adult community college enrollment may have changed due to increased access to degree options, specifically online programs offered by for-profit and public universities that target place-based adults. The unprecedented expansion of online education between 1999 and 2010 may have removed university proximity barriers and disrupted community colleges’ longstanding enrollment-driven revenue models tied to economic cycles.