A long-term water quality prediction model for marine ranch based on time-graph convolutional neural network

Abstract

Water quality prediction is important for maintaining water stability and control in marine environments. However, water quality parameters are affected by complex environmental factors.Marine time series data exhibit distribution shift and nonstationarity problems, owing to environmental heterogeneity.It is still difficult to obtain the spatial and time dependence of time series data with existing models and the model prediction accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Therefore, this paper proposes a graph-based convolutional neural network model, allowing networks and sequences to interact smoothly. The Time-graph convolutional fusion network(T-GCFN) consists of a graph convolutional fusion network(GCFN) and Time-pyramidal fusion attention(T-PFA). To obtain the spatial dependence of the original sequence, the original sequence is first decomposed into three subsequences by STL, and then the GCFN obtains the original sequence and trinomial subsequence through a multilayer T-GCN.Internal topology information is also obtained. Second, to eliminate the distribution differences between the training and test sets, the T-PFA is weakened using RevIN.To address the distribution shift problem of the sequence and the nonstationarity problem of the destationarized attention attenuation sequence, a higher weight is assigned to the sequence. Finally, depending on the long and short time series of the obtained sequence, the subsequence is downsampled by cross-learning, and the local features are extracted. Experiments on dissolved oxygen, salinity and temperature at six marine ranches on the Shandong peninsula were carried out using the T-GCFN, and the results were compared with those of other deep learning models. The experimental results show that the T-GCFN has better prediction performance and can achieve high-precision predictions of ocean chemistry parameters in the next three days.