A leisure demand projection model

Abstract

Abstract A leisure demand projection model is developed that offers a technique to combine several socioeconomic variables into a single composite score for use in predicting future leisure demand. The first step in the leisure demand projection process was the formulation of a leisure typology from the 1973 data provided by the Continuous National Survey undertaken by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. Each cell of the leisure typology is formulated from individuals who have similar leisure participation patterns. The second step was to use a discriminant analysis to select the most useful socioeconomic variables for discriminating between the cells of the typology. The third step was to project the growth to 1990 of each of the socioeconomic variables identified as being associated with the leisure typology. The final step of the projection process was to estimate the proportion of population likely to be redistributed to each cell of the leisure typology in 1990 as a res...