A land-use regression model for estimating microenvironmental diesel exposure given multiple addresses from birth through childhood

Abstract

The Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study (CCAAPS) is a prospective birth cohort whose purpose is to determine if exposure to high levels of diesel exhaust particles (DEP) during early childhood increases the risk for developing allergic diseases. In order to estimate exposure to DEP, a land-use regression (LUR) model was developed using geographic data as independent variables and sampled levels of a marker of DEP as the dependent variable. A continuous wind direction variable was also created. The LUR model predicted 74% of the variability in sampled values with four variables: wind direction, length of bus routes within 300 m of the sample site, a measure of truck intensity within 300 m of the sampling site, and elevation. The LUR model was subsequently applied to all locations where the child had spent more than eight hours per week from through age three. A time-weighted average (TWA) microenvironmental exposure estimate was derived for four time periods: 0–6 months, 7–12 months, 13–24 months, 25–36 months. By age two, one third of the children were spending significant time at locations other than home and by 36 months, 39% of the children had changed their residential addresses. The mean cumulative DEP exposure estimate increased from age 6 to 36 months from 70 to 414 μg/m 3-days. Findings indicate that using birth addresses to estimate a child's exposure may result in exposure misclassification for some children who spend a significant amount of time at a location with high exposure to DEP.