Abstract
Abstract. The Lower Rhine Delta, a transitional area between the River Rhine and Meuse and the North Sea, is at risk of flooding induced by infrequent events of a storm surge or upstream flooding, or by more infrequent events of a combination of both. A joint probability analysis of the astronomical tide, the wind induced storm surge, the Rhine flow and the Meuse flow at the boundaries is established in order to produce the joint probability distribution of potential flood events. Three individual joint probability distributions are established corresponding to three potential flooding causes: storm surges and normal Rhine discharges, normal sea levels and high Rhine discharges, and storm surges and high Rhine discharges. For each category, its corresponding joint probability distribution is applied, in order to stochastically simulate a large number of scenarios. These scenarios can be used as inputs to a deterministic 1-D hydrodynamic model in order to estimate the high water level frequency curves at the transitional locations. The results present the exceedance probability of the present design water level for the economically important cities of Rotterdam and Dordrecht. The calculated exceedance probability is evaluated and compared to the governmental norm. Moreover, the impact of climate change on the high water level frequency curves is quantified for the year 2050 in order to assist in decisions regarding the adaptation of the operational water management system and the flood defense system.
Highlights
Storm surges and normal Rhine discharges, normal sea levels is influenced by the upsIntresatmrurmiveer nfltoawtsi,otnhe downstream and high Rhine discharges, and storm surges and high Rhine discharges
According to the Dutch law, the design water level in Rotterdam is regarded as the water level with the exceedance frequency of 1/10 000; the design water level in Dordrecht is with the exceedance frequency of 1/2000
The future high water level frequency curves are about 0.2 to 0.4 m higher than the present curves in Rotterdam and Dordrecht. It indicates that climate change will lead to more extreme events which increase the high water level frequency in the future
Summary
Storm surges and normal Rhine discharges, normal sea levels is influenced by the upsIntresatmrurmiveer nfltoawtsi,otnhe downstream and high Rhine discharges, and storm surges and high Rhine discharges. Its corresponding joint probability distribution is applied, in order to stochastically simussetraucletuverelsa.sAwtetlhleauspthstereoapmerMabtoioeunntdhoaforytdh, estheeaxRinshtdiinnge controllable flow comes from rainfall-runoff and sDnoawtmaelSt yinsttheemAslps; the Meuse late a large number of scenarios. These scenarios can be used flow is mainly determined by rainfall in France and Belgium. The resistance of the river dikes against flooding is captured in the design water level; for instance, for the economically important city of Rotterdam the design water level is regarded as the water level with the exceedance frequency of 1/10 000. Being a very significant human intervention, the change in the operational water management system has resulted in nonhomogeneous high water level observations
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