A hypertension risk score for adults: a population-based cross-sectional study from the Dubai Household Survey 2019.

Ibrahim Mahmoud,Heba Mamdouh,Gamal M Ibrahim,Wafa K Al Nakhi,Hamid Y Hussain,Amal Hussein,Nabil Sulaiman

doi:10.4178/epih.e2021064

Ibrahim Mahmoud, Heba Mamdouh + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021064

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Abstract

OBJECTIVESThe aim of this study was to develop a risk score model for predicting hypertension specific to the population of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to facilitate prevention and early intervention.METHODSA retrospective analysis of data from the Dubai Household Health Survey 2019 was conducted. Demographic and physical parameters, as well as blood glucose levels, were included in the data. The risk factors for hypertension were identified using bivariate analysis. A risk score model was developed using the enter method, where all significant predictors of hypertension in bivariate analyses were entered in a single step with the primary outcome of hypertension status (yes/no). The model was validated internally by splitting the data into Emirati and non-Emirati populations.RESULTSA total of 2,533 subjects were studied. The significant risk factors for hypertension identified were male sex, older age (≥40 years), education level, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidaemia. The model showed a high discrimination ability between individuals with and without hypertension, with an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.79), excellent sensitivity (81.0%; 95% CI, 71.9 to 88.2) and moderate specificity (56.0%; 95% CI, 45.7 to 65.9).CONCLUSIONSThe model developed by this study is simple, convenient, and based on readily available demographic and medical characteristics. This risk score model could support initial hypertension screening and provide an effective tool for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.

Highlights

The variables included in the final logistic regression models were sex, age, educational level, body mass index (BMI) group, dyslipidaemia status, and diabetes status, with the primary outcome of hypertension status
Being male, over 40 years old (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.57 to 2.42), or obese (OR, 3.12; 95% CI, 2.39 to 4.04) and having dyslipidaemia (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.27 to 2.06), or diabetes (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 2.33 to 3.70) were significant positive predictors of hypertension
We analytically assessed a set of factors that were identified in the literature as predictors for hypertension in order to develop a simple and convenient model

Summary

Introduction

High blood pressure (hypertension) is a global public health concern that causes high morbidity and mortality and a substantial economic burden. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), over 1 billion people throughout the world have hypertension, which increases their risk of ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and kidney disease [1]. Hypertension is a major cause of premature death worldwide, and its annual treatment cost was estimated to be over US$24 billion in 2018 [2]. A high burden of undiagnosed hypertension was reported in the UAE [5]

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