Abstract
A stochastic hydroclimatological model is developed to characterize areal droughts. Statistical properties of drought indices are described by conditioning monthly drought indices on large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CP). The methodology is applied to an area of about 110 000 km 2 in eastern Nebraska, USA where the dry continental climate often produces severe droughts. In this example, the Bhalme-Mooley drought index (BMDI) illustrates the methodology. Five monthly classes of CP are derived using cluster analysis. Time series of BMDI are conditioned on monthly CP classes; BMDI is strongly related to these classes. A climate change may alter the structure of monthly CP classes; thus the impact of climate change on drought can be predicted.
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