A hybridized ELM using self-adaptive multi-population-based Jaya algorithm for currency exchange prediction: an empirical assessment

Abstract

This paper proposes a hybridized machine-learning framework called Extreme Learning Machine using self-adaptive multi-population-based Jaya algorithm for forecasting the currency exchange value. This learning technique attempts to take the advantages of generalization ability of Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) along with the multi-population search scheme of Jaya optimization technique. This model can very well forecast the exchange price of USD–INR and USD–EURO based on statistical measures, technical indicators and combination of both measures over a time frame varying from 1 day to 1 month ahead. Proposed model has been compared with original ELM and ELM-Jaya along with technical analysis method such as discrete wavelet neural network optimized with self-adaptive multi-population-based Jaya and the comparison of different performance measures like MAPE, Theil’s U, ARV and MAE reveal that ELM using self-adaptive multi-population-based Jaya hybrid models possesses superior compared to the rest predictive models. Comparison of different features demonstrates technical indicators outperform other two features such as statistical measures and combination of both technical indicators and statistical measures.