A Hybrid Prediction Model for Damage Warning of Power Transmission Line Under Typhoon Disaster

Hui Hou,Hao Wang,Shiwen Yu,Xixiu Wu,Yan Xu,Yong Huang,Xiang Xiao

doi:10.1109/access.2020.2992528

Abstract

To bolster the resilience of power systems against typhoon disasters, this paper develops a holistic framework of wind disaster warning for transmission lines. This paper proposes a hybrid prediction model to quantify the transmission line damage probability under typhoon disaster based on extreme value type I probability distribution, Monte Carlo method, and Random Forest. Specifically, this paper uses the extreme value type I probability distribution and the Monte Carlo method to simulate the random wind field, and predict the damage probability of transmission lines under each wind field using the Random Forest method. This paper takes typhoon “Mangkhut” in 2018 as a case study, and compare the performance of the hybrid model based on random wind field with the Random Forest method under predicted and measured wind field. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model can effectively utilize wind speed data to obtain a more reliable prediction and achieves the best synthetic similarity to the actual damage situations.

Highlights

Typhoon disaster, as one of the most catastrophic natural disasters, brings severe hazards like storm and flooding and may cause unprecedented damages to the power grid in coastal areas, including tower tilt and falling, power transmission lines breaking, and even wide-scale power outage [1], [2]
The main contributions of this paper are as follows: 1) This paper develops a hybrid method to predict the damage probability of transmission line under typhoon disaster, which can provide decision support for the disaster prevention and mitigation; 2) The extreme value type I probability distribution and Monte Carlo method are used to simulate the wind field, and the Random Forest is used to predict the damage probability of transmission lines
It is demonstrated that the extreme value type I probability distribution and Monte Carlo method are effective to simulate typhoon wind field, and the uncertainty of typhoon can be counted to improve the accuracy of prediction results

Summary

INTRODUCTION

As one of the most catastrophic natural disasters, brings severe hazards like storm and flooding and may cause unprecedented damages to the power grid in coastal areas, including tower tilt and falling, power transmission lines breaking, and even wide-scale power outage [1], [2]. We set up a hybrid prediction model for transmission line damage probability calculation based on extreme value type I probability distribution, Monte Carlo method and Random Forest method The former model in [15] only utilized certain maximum gust, which was not applicable for scenario of predicted gust that contained occurrence probability. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: 1) This paper develops a hybrid method to predict the damage probability of transmission line under typhoon disaster, which can provide decision support for the disaster prevention and mitigation; 2) The extreme value type I probability distribution and Monte Carlo method are used to simulate the wind field, and the Random Forest is used to predict the damage probability of transmission lines.

TECHNICAL FRAMEWORK

CONSTRUCTION OF INFORMATION PROCESSING MODULE

CONSTRUCTION OF DAMAGE WARNING AND EVALUATION MODULE

Findings

CONCLUSION