A Hybrid of NARX and Moving Average Structures for Exhaust Gas Temperature Prediction of Gas Turbine Engines

Abstract

Aiming at engine health management, a novel hybrid prediction method is proposed for exhaust gas temperature (EGT) prediction of gas turbine engines. This hybrid model combines a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model and a moving average (MA) model. A feature attention mechanism-enhanced long short-term memory network (FAE-LSTM) is first developed to construct the NARX model, which is used for identifying the aircraft engine using condition parameters and gas path measurement parameters that correlate to the EGT. A vanilla LSTM is then used for constructing the MA model, which is used for improving the difference between the actual EGT and the predicted EGT given by the NARX model. The proposed method is evaluated using real flight process data and compared to several dynamic prediction techniques. The results show that our hybrid model reduces the predicted RMSE and MAE by at least 13.23% and 18.47%, respectively. The developed FAE-LSTM network can effectively deal with dynamic data. Overall, the present work demonstrates a promising performance and provides a positive guide for predicting engine parameters.