A hybrid model integrating FMEA and HFACS to assess the risk of inter-city bus accidents

James J H Liou,Huai-Wei Lo,Yu-Zeng Wu,Shiaw-Shyan Luo,Perry C Y Liu

doi:10.1007/s40747-022-00657-1

Abstract

The incidence of inter-city bus accidents receives a lot of attention from the public because they often cause heavy casualties. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is the prevailing tool used for traffic accident risk assessment. However, it has several shortcomings, for example: (1) it can only identify the potential failure modes, but lacks the capability for quantitative risk assessment; (2) it neglects the severity, occurrence and detection of different failure modes; (3) it is unable to identify the degree of risk and priorities of the failure modes. This study proposes a novel hybrid model to overcome these problems. First, the HFACS is applied to enumerate the failure modes of inter-city bus operation. Second, the Z-number-based best–worst method is used to determine the weights of the risk factors based on the failure mode and effects analysis results. Then, a Z-number-based weighted aggregated sum product Assessment is utilized to calculate the degree of risk of the failure modes and the priorities for improvement. The results of this study determine the top three ranking failure modes, which are personal readiness from pre-conditions for unsafe behavior, human resources from organizational influence, and driver decision-making error from unsafe behavior. Finally, data for inter-city buses in Taiwan in a case study to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed model. In addition, some management implications are provided.

Highlights

Accidents are occurring more and more frequently due to the continuous and rapid development of road traffic, causing an increase in the numbers of injuries and fatalities each year [48]
This study develops a novel risk assessment model, which uses Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) to summarize the potential failure modes for inter-city bus transportation
The Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) assessment is based on three risk factors, the S, O, and D, which together comprise the Risk Priority Number (RPN) S × O × D, which is quantified based on the opinions of experts expressed through linguistic variables or through estimated values and critical analysis of the failure modes [25]

Summary

Introduction

Accidents are occurring more and more frequently due to the continuous and rapid development of road traffic, causing an increase in the numbers of injuries and fatalities each year [48]. In regards to road safety, Zhang et al [56] explored the causal relationships between traffic accident factors, and discussed the interaction between the various HFACS levels to establish a systematic assessment method. Their results showed “unsafe behavior” to be the most frequent failure mode in road accidents. 1. This study develops a novel risk assessment model, which uses HFACS to summarize the potential failure modes for inter-city bus transportation. System analysis models are more suitable than traditional methods for understanding problems in the real world Both types of methods show that human factors, especially driving behavior, are the key cause of road traffic accidents. A comprehensive analysis of the effect of human factors in the system is crucial

Literature review

Violation of road traffic regulations or drunk driving

Findings

Discussion

Conclusions and future work