A hybrid model for the forecasting of sea surface water temperature using the information of air temperature: a case study of the Baltic Sea

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important indicator of marine system. In this study, the hybrid physically-statistically based air2water model was modified for the forecasting of SST. The hybrid model combines empiricism and theory, and balances the complexity and accuracy between the process-based physical models and statistical models. Daily observed SST data (2009–2019) from six stations in the Baltic Sea were used for the evaluation of model performance. Two metrics including the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were used for model assessment. With the increase of air temperature, SST presents a clear warming trend (0.133°C/year–0.166°C/year), and air temperature warms faster than SST in the studied stations. The modelling results indicated that the model performs well for SST forecasting (in the validation period, mean value of RMSE is 1.245°C, and mean value of NSE is 0.961). Cross-validation results showed that the model is transferable in unknown stations. However, the model works a little bit worse in the warm period due to the impact of the upwelling phenomenon. Overall, the model is a promising tool for the prediction of SST.