Abstract
Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to potential risk factors due to dynamic business environment and stakeholders’ lack of knowledge. When solving project management tasks, it is necessary to quantify the main risk indicators of the projects. Managing these requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. The existence of information asymmetry also causes difficulties with achieving Pareto efficiency. Hence, to ensure balanced satisfaction of all participants, risk evaluation of these projects can be considered as an important part of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) process. In real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP) methodology in the D numbers domain to handle three types of ambiguous information’s, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D numbers based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D numbers extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR). An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method in D numbers is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches in D numbers domain. Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed to verify the robustness of the proposed method.
Highlights
In recent decades, projects in the construction sector have become more complex and risky due to the diverse nature of activities among global companies [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]
In comparison to other sectors, construction projects encounter more risks due to uncertainties occurring because of various construction practices, working conditions, mixed cultures and political conditions between host and home countries [9,10,11,12]. In this scenario, risk management can be considered a vital part of the decision-making process in construction projects
Based on the above considerations, this paper develops an extended version of the multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) methodology in an uncertain and incomplete decision environment, in order to evaluate risk mitigation strategies in construction based projects
Summary
Projects in the construction sector have become more complex and risky due to the diverse nature of activities among global companies [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. In comparison to other sectors, construction projects encounter more risks due to uncertainties occurring because of various construction practices, working conditions, mixed cultures and political conditions between host and home countries [9,10,11,12]. In this scenario, risk management can be considered a vital part of the decision-making process in construction projects. These projects may involve many stakeholders, Symmetry 2018, 10, 46; doi:10.3390/sym10020046 www.mdpi.com/journal/symmetry. Construction project failure may cause higher costs and time over-runs, requiring a systematic risk assessment and evaluation procedure to classify and respond to changes [15,16].
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