A hybrid BWM–CRITIC–VIKOR approach for assessing oil and gas risk scenarios in probabilistic linguistic term set

Abstract

The oil and gas industry plays a crucial role in supporting energy supply and economic development. Mitigating risks in oil and gas projects is essential for reducing decision-making uncertainties, optimizing resource allocation, and fostering the competitiveness and sustainable growth of enterprises. Therefore, evaluating decision-making risks in the oil and gas sector is of significant practical importance. This paper proposes a comprehensive approach based on the BWM–CRITIC–VIKOR multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) evaluation model. An evaluation index system encompassing six critical dimensions—technology, economics, environment, security, societal impact, and political factors—is established. To enhance assessment precision, the AHP interval estimation method is employed to identify and eliminate indicators with low contributions. Subsequently, the probabilistic linguistic term set (PLTS) is introduced into the best–worst method (BWM) and CRITIC methods to calculate the weights for each index. This approach helps to circumvent the subjectivity inherent in single subjective weighting methods. To evaluate and rank alternatives, the PLTS is used as an evaluation linguistic tool within the VIKOR framework. Finally, this methodology is applied to decision-making in the oil and gas industry, and its effectiveness and superiority are compared with the AHP–TOPSIS method and the BWM–CRITIC method.