A hostile reputation: A social network approach to interstate hostility

Abstract

State-level decisions to initiate militarized conflicts are the result of various factors, ranging from geographic proximity to the previous actions of potential foes. However, we know little about how the reputations of hostile actions shape future conflict and whether they vary for different types of country pairs. Through the adoption of a social network perspective, this research examines the role of post-Cold War hostility on the likelihood of future conflicts using the Militarized Interstate Dispute data from the Correlates of War project. We apply temporal exponential random graph models to evaluate whether the previous hostility levels of a country can determine future patterns of interstate conflict. Additionally, we consider how this association varies based on whether a country’s experience with an adversary is direct (a result of previous conflict with the adversary) or indirect (based on extra-dyadic disputes). Consistent with previous research, results suggest that pairs of countries with a direct history of hostile actions are more likely to fight in the future. However, in absence of this shared history, states are less likely to initiate conflict with those that have a particularly hostile or peaceful history, and instead target adversaries with middling levels of previous hostility.