Abstract
Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines.
Highlights
The use of horizon scanning in conservation is increasing
It has been suggested that Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) use horizon scanning to develop its work program [16], and Germany is already doing so to guide its input to the Platform
As in previous annual horizon scans, the environmental effects of some of the issues that we identified this year may be valued by society, whereas others may be considered undesirable (e.g., PIB or exploitation of Antarctica)
Summary
The use of horizon scanning in conservation is increasing. A parallel series of exercises has identified forthcoming changes in legislation that are likely to affect countries in the UK, the rest of the EU, and elsewhere [8,9,10]. If forthcoming major issues are identified, another measure of the importance of horizon scanning is the extent to which it encourages researchers to study emerging topics, and policy makers and practitioners to be vigilant and consider their responses should the issues be realized (e.g., [15]).
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