A Holistic Method to Design an Optimized Energy Scenario and Quantitatively Evaluate Promising Technologies for Implementation

Abstract

In this article we focus on today's worldwide energy system, a fundamentally illogical and unsustainable system. Today, 85% of the world wide energy system depends on carbon-based fossil fuels. We develop a holistic method to analyze mankind's use of energy in a broad way and to design optimized, normative energy scenarios that conform to important scientific principles. The procedure is based on an abstraction process and helps to overcome thinking barriers and prejudice. The proposed method is applied to a general analysis of energy and to a simplified normative energy scenario for the United States in 2060. Important technologies for the implementation are evaluated in a bottom-up analysis. Since research endeavors and policies affect free-market decisions within the energy system, the developed method aims at guiding researchers and politicians to embark on strategies toward sustainable and scientifically optimized energy concepts for the future.