Abstract
The decarbonisation of heating in the United Kingdom is likely to entail both the mass adoption of heat pumps and widespread development of district heating infrastructure. Estimation of the spatially disaggregated heat demand is needed for both electrical distribution network with electrified heating and for the development of district heating. The temporal variation of heat demand is important when considering the operation of district heating, thermal energy storage and electrical grid storage. The difference between the national and urban heat demands profiles will vary due to the type and occupancy of buildings leading to temporal variations which have not been widely surveyed. This paper develops a high-resolution spatiotemporal heat load model for Great Britain (GB: England, Scotland a Wales) by identifying the appropriate datasets, archetype segmentation and characterisation for the domestic and nondomestic building stock. This is applied to a thermal model and calibrated on the local scale using gas consumption statistics. The annual GB heat demand was in close agreement with other estimates and the peak demand was 219 GWth. The urban heat demand was found to have a lower peak to trough ratio than the average national demand profile. This will have important implications for the uptake of heating technologies and design of district heating.
Highlights
(GB: England, Scotland a Wales) by identifying the appropriate datasets, archetype segmentation and characterisation for the domestic and nondomestic building stock
The segmentation of the building stock into archetypes is widely used, except in cases where a regression has been applied to historical data
The heat load modelling was achieved via either application of load profiles to heating degree day calculations or the generation of load profiles through building physics models with a reduced set of archetypes
Summary
(GB: England, Scotland a Wales) by identifying the appropriate datasets, archetype segmentation and characterisation for the domestic and nondomestic building stock. The provision of heat and hot water for building accounts for around 40% of all energy consumption and 20% of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. To meets these targets, emissions from the building sector are required to be near zero [3]. Emissions from the building sector are required to be near zero [3] This is expected to drive the expansion of district heating (DH) to deliver low carbon space and water heating. Space heat and hot water demand estimates are required to determine the hourly electrified heat load of modelled electricity scenarios and for use in modelling of urban district heating networks. This paper develops a spatiotemporal heat load model—HeLoM, with requirements that can be summarised as: a
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