A graph-based approach for traffic prediction using similarity and causal relations between nodes

Abstract

Accurate traffic prediction is crucial for the development of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and various smart applications. To achieve this, effectively capturing the complex interplay between spatial and temporal dependencies across traffic nodes is essential. However, existing research often focuses solely on fixed spatial dependencies between neighboring nodes, neglecting the potential influence of distant nodes. This paper addresses these limitations by exploring two key types of relationships among traffic nodes. First, we examine indirect relationships based on similarity, where nodes exhibit similar traffic patterns irrespective of their physical proximity. Second, we investigate direct causal relationships, where traffic conditions at one node are directly influenced by other nodes. Based on these findings, we propose a novel approach named TPSC (Traffic Prediction using nodes Similarity and Causal relations). TPSC incorporates a classifier that utilizes the K-Prototype algorithm to group nodes based on their traffic similarity and nearby points of interest (POIs). Separate models are then trained for each cluster. Our model leverages a spatial module that employs graph convolutional network representation learning alongside transfer entropy to capture causal relationships and dynamic spatial dependencies. Additionally, a temporal module is introduced to capture periodic temporal dependencies across three components: recent patterns, daily patterns, and weekly patterns. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate proposed model on four large-scale traffic datasets for multiple traffic characteristics including speed, flow, and travel time. The experimental results demonstrate that TPSC surpasses the performance of the compared baselines, highlighting its superior predictive capabilities in traffic prediction.