A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

Abstract

Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1–5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level 1 , latitude 6 and how phenological responses are measured 7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts. A synthesis of animal phenology shows that temperature primarily drives mid-latitude responses, with precipitation important at lower latitudes. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts.