A global population-driven perspective on South-East Asia’s air transport growth prospects in the 21st century

Abstract

Aviation contributes to 3.6% of the world’s GDP (ATAG, 2018). It is expected that this figure is set to double at a projected $5.7 trillion by 2036, of which a third of all the aviation traffic and economy is expected to be contributed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) (ICAO, 2018). With aviation in the region growing at 10% each year, there is a rapid development of connectivity, infrastructure, urban planning, and transportation (POST, 2019). In ASEAN, whilst populations are expected to stabilise or even decline by 2050, there will be significant growth up to that point and the expanding middle-class in Asia are and will be increasingly able to afford air travel, which was previously limited to a small number of local citizens or inbound tourists. This has led to the building of many new airports in Asia; in 2019, fifteen of the top twenty fastest-growing major airports are in Asia (Casey, 2018). This surge demands a regionally better-informed approach to pre-empt aviation centres or airports to ensure its sustainability of major airports. We consider 10 countries across South-East Asia and develop deploy a methodology to predict aviation route growth and airport node demand through spatial, economic, and demographic analysis. To map country-level growth expectations in ASEAN and globally. We see a wide range of growth types making Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia as major contributors. The insights of the study could be useful for planning the future growth of sustainable aviation in Asia.