A GIS-based spatial multi-index model for flood risk assessment in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Abstract

This paper developed a GIS-based spatial multi-index model for large basin-scale flood risk assessment. In terms of the risk definition proposed by the IPCC, the flood risk in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) was classified into indexes of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The model systematically accounts for various flood risk indicators related to the economic, social and ecological environment of the YRB. Using the robust data space analysis and processing capabilities of ArcGIS, these flood risk indicators were superimposed and analyzed to generate an integrated flood risk spatial distribution map for the YRB. The modeling results were verified reasonably well using observation data from the YRB floods in 1998, 2008, and 2016. We found that 24.90% of the study area was at very high and high risk in 1998, and the risk in these areas decreased to 15.95% and 17.61% in 2008 and 2016, respectively. We believe that the GIS-based spatial multi-index model can be applied to other areas where basin-scale flood risk assessment is desired and contribute to further scientific research on flood forecasting and mitigation.