A GIS Modeling Study of the Distribution of Viviparous Invasive Alien Fish Species in Eastern Europe in Terms of Global Climate Change, as Exemplified by Poecilia reticulata Peters, 1859 and Gambusia holbrooki Girarg, 1859

Oleksii Marushchak,Arturs Skute,Oksana Nekrasova,Volodymyr Tytar,Mihails Pupins,Andris Čeirāns

doi:10.3390/d13080385

Abstract

The potential distribution of tropical fish species in Eastern Europe—Gambusia holbrooki (introduced for biological control) and Poecilia reticulata (aquarium species, found in waste waters of big cities)—tend to be of particular interest in terms of global climate change. After GIS modeling of our own data and findings listed in the GBIF databases (2278 points for G. holbrooki and 1410 points for P. reticulata) using the Maxent package and ‘ntbox’ package in R, 18 uncorrelated variables of 35 Bioclim climatic parameters from CliMond dataset, it was found out that by 2090 guppies will appear in the south of Ukraine (Danube river’s estuary, as well as in several places in the Caucasus and Turkey with habitat suitability > 0.3–0.5). G. holbrooki will also slightly expand its range in Europe. Limiting factors for G. holbrooki distribution are: bio1 (Annual mean temperature, optimum +12–+24 °C) and bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter (mm). Limiting factors for P. reticulata are: bio1 (optimum +14–+28 °C), bio4 (Temperature seasonality), bio3 (Isothermality). Unlike G. holbrooki, guppies prefer warmer waters. Such thermophilic fish species do not compete with the native ichthyofauna, but they can occupy niches in anthropogenically transformed habitats, playing an important role as agents of biological control.

Highlights

Considering the prospects associated with the appearance of invasive species of animals at a new continent, some of the possible consequences are usually missed
It is often expected that the distribution and naturalization of invasive alien species can be controlled
This cannot always be possible since in open biosystems, in addition to other human activities leading to the spread of invasive alien species, the influence of changing climatic conditions, as the most global consequence of human activity takes place

Summary

Introduction

Considering the prospects associated with the appearance of invasive species of animals at a new continent, some of the possible consequences are usually missed. The influence of all these negative factors (moving species between countries, uncontrolled release, wrong usage as agents of bimethod, accidental introduction, hunting, disbalancing of local ecosystems, etc.) as a whole can lead to the suppression of native animal species [1] and the emergence of species new to the local environment [2,3,4,5,6,7]. These factors can actively displace representatives of the ichthyofauna, and batrachofauna [8]. Two closely related species of this genus were introduced in Europe for the above mentioned purpose: Gambusia affinis (Baird and Girard, 1853) and Gambusia holbrooki (Girard, 1859), but the latter species is the most widespread and occurs in Ukraine

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Conclusion