A GIS-based method for assessing the economics of utility-scale photovoltaic systems

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic capacities have experienced remarkable gains worldwide. The accelerated deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems has emphasized the need for methods and tools that can assist in planning and investment decisions of utility-scale photovoltaic systems to ensure a sustainable energy transition. This study bridges the gap between research and current solar PV project evaluation practices by proposing a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach for analyzing land eligibility and performing techno-economic assessments of utility-scale photovoltaic systems. To tackle the issue of country-specific cost elements, the model incorporates a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) breakdown often used by governmental and intergovernmental organizations. The proposed GIS-based model can assist in mapping the distribution of eligible land for utility-scale solar systems while considering exclusion constraints, estimating PV capacity and generation potentials, as well as determining the average LCOE of utility-scale solar photovoltaic systems at a spatial resolution of 100 m. The GIS-based approach is demonstrated through the case study of Poland. The model estimates that 3.61% of the total area of Poland is suitable for the installation of utility-scale solar PV systems. Implementing PV installations in these areas would result in solar capacities ranging from 394.64 to 563.77 GW. Furthermore, the findings of the case study indicate that the LCOE would range from €0.043/kWh to €0.049/kWh, with a national average of €0.045/kWh. The proposed approach can be utilized to develop national and regional strategies focused on large-scale PV installations, facilitating the attainment of renewable energy goals. The study fills a significant gap in the literature as it provides a GIS-based tool for planning the sustainable development of utility-scale PV systems at the regional scale. In addition, it is the first to comprehensively assess the capacity and generation potential of utility-scale solar photovoltaics in Poland at the NUTS-2 level.