A GIS-Based Flood Risk Assessment Using the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Approach at a Regional Scale

Abstract

This paper introduces an integrated methodology that exploits both GIS and the Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methods for assessing flood risk in the Kosynthos River basin in northeastern Greece. The study aims to address challenges arising from data limitations and provide decision-makers with effective flood risk management strategies. The integration of DEMATEL is crucial, providing a robust framework that considers interdependencies among factors, particularly in regions where conventional numerical modeling faces difficulties. DEMATEL is preferred over other methods due to its proficiency in handling qualitative data and its ability to account for interactions among the studied factors. The proposed method is based on two developed causality diagrams. The first diagram is crucial for assessing flood hazard in the absence of data. The second causality diagram offers a multidimensional analysis, considering interactions among the criteria. Notably, the causality diagram referring to flood vulnerability can adapt to local (or national) conditions, considering the ill-defined nature of vulnerability. Given that the proposed methodology identifies highly hazardous and vulnerable areas, the study not only provides essential insights but also supports decision-makers in formulating effective approaches to mitigate flood impacts on communities and infrastructure. Validation includes sensitivity analysis and comparison with historical flood data. Effective weights derived from sensitivity analysis enhance the precision of the Flood Hazard Index (FHI) and Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI).