A genetic component of extinction risk in mammals

Abstract

Genetic factors may play an important role in species extinction but their actual effect remains poorly understood, particularly because of a strong and potentially masking effect expected from ecological traits. We investigated the role of genetics in mammal extinction taking both ecological and genetic factors into account. As a proxy for the role of genetics we used the ratio of the rates of nonsynonymous (amino acid changing) to synonymous (leaving the amino acid unchanged) nucleotide substitutions, Ka / Ks. Because most nonsynonymous substitutions are likely to be slightly deleterious and thus selected against, this ratio is a measure of the inefficiency of selection: if large (but less than 1), it implies a low efficiency of selection against nonsynonymous mutations. As a result, nonsynonymous mutations may accumulate and thus contribute to extinction. As a proxy for the role of ecology we used body mass W, with which most extinction-related ecological traits strongly correlate. As a measure of extinction risk we used species’ affiliation with the five levels of extinction threat according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. We calculated Ka / Ks for mitochondrial protein-coding genes of 211 mammalian species, each of which was characterized by body mass and the level of threat. Using logistic regression analysis, we then constructed a set of logistic regression models of extinction risk on ln(Ka / Ks) and lnW. We found that Ka / Ks and body mass are responsible for a 38% and a 62% increase in extinction risk, respectively. Given that the standard error of these values is 13%, the contribution of genetic factors to extinction risk in mammals is estimated to be one-quarter to one-half of the total of ecological and genetic effects. We conclude that the effect of genetics on extinction is significant, though it is almost certainly smaller than the effect of ecological traits. Synthesis Mutation provides the material for evolution. However, most mutations that play a role in evolution are slightly deleterious and thus may contribute to extinction. We assess the role of mitochondrial DNA mutations in mammalian extinction risk and find it to be one-quarter to one-half of the total of mutation and body mass effects, where body mass represents an integral measure of extinction-related ecological traits. Genetic factors may be all the more important, because ecological traits associated with large body mass would both promote and protect from extinction, while mutation accumulation caused by low effective population size seems to have no counterbalance.