Effects of climate change on life history: implications for extinction risk in mammals

Abstract

Global climate change is predicted to result in the decline and/or extinction of a large number of animal populations worldwide, and the risk of extinction is likely to be greatest for those species already vulnerable — i.e. those with limited climatic range and/or restricted habitat require- ments. To date, predictive models have failed to take into account the fact that climate change will alter many of the key life history and ecological parameters which determine a species' inherent risk of extinction, such as body mass, size of geographic range and a suite of reproductive traits. Herein, I review contemporary research on the effects of climate change on extinction risk in mammals, focusing on the capacity of climate change to modify those life history traits that inherently alter spe- cies' extinction risk. This review finds strong evidence that climate change has already had marked effects on key life history traits in many mammals. These changes have resulted in both negative and positive effects on reproductive success and adult and offspring survival, with implications for extinc- tion risk in affected species. While the capacity of climate change to alter life history traits in mam- mals is clear, there is currently little research to clarify how these changes have influenced popula- tion growth and dynamics. Other currently overlooked areas of research are also identified.