A GAME MODEL OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT BASED ON FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES

Abstract

Fractal analysis of time series is an important tool for describing complex systems and solving nonlinear problems based on time series datebases, of which the core is believed that the geometric bodies composed of various parts of the system have self-similarity and scale invariance. Supply chain management uses integrated thinking, from the perspective of system, to design, plan and control the logistics, capital flow, and information flow in the supply chain for minimizing internal consumption, improving competitiveness or welfare levels, and achieving win–win cooperation. Whether or not the supply chain enterprises cooperate is essentially a game between the enterprises; according to the game theory, the profit of an enterprise depends not only on its own behavior, but also on the behavior of another enterprise with which it deals. On basis of summarizing and analyzing of previous research works, this paper expounded the current research status and significance of the game model of supply chain management, elaborated the development background, current status, and future challenges of the fractal analysis of time series, introduced the methods and principles of fractal dimension calculation and replicator dynamic equation, established a game model of supply chain management based on the fractal analysis of time series including scale-free area determination and model optimization solution, and conducted the fractal analysis of the game model of supply chain management and discussed the equilibrium and statistical similarity of this proposed model. The final simulation experiment showed that the game model of supply chain management based on the fractal analysis of time series applied the phase space reconstruction principle to the data sample selection of fractal prediction algorithm in supply chain, which solved the problem of low similarity between data samples taken by fractal prediction objects with fuzzy self-similar characteristics and periodic ambiguity, and improved the prediction accuracy of the fractal prediction algorithm when predicting objects in the game model of supply chain management.