Abstract
In this study, a fuzzy-interval dynamic programming (FIDP) model is proposed for regional water management under uncertainty by combining fuzzy-interval linear programming (FILP) and dynamic programming (DP). This model can not only tackle uncertainties presented as intervals, but also consider the dynamic characteristics in the allocation process for water resources. Meanwhile, the overall satisfaction from users is considered in the objective function to solve the conflict caused by uneven distribution of resources. The FIDP model is then applied to the case study in terms of water resources allocation under uncertainty and dynamics for the City of Handan in Hebei Province, China. The obtained solutions can provide detailed allocation schemes and water shortage rates at different stages. The calculated comprehensive benefits of economy, water users’ satisfaction and pollutant discharge (i.e., COD) are [2264.72, 2989.33] × 108 yuan, [87.50, 96.50] % and [1.23, 1.65] × 108 kg respectively with a plausibility degree (i.e., λopt±) ranging within [0.985, 0.993]. Moreover, the benefit from FIDP model under consideration of dynamic features is more specific and accurate than that of FILP model, whilst the water shortage rate from FIDP is [5.10, 9.10] % lower than that of FILP model.
Highlights
Due to population growth, economic development and consumption upgrade, global water consumption has increased by six times, and it has been continuing to grow steadily at an annual rate of about 1% during the past 100 years [1]
Economic development and consumption upgrade, global water consumption has increased by six times, and it has been continuing to grow steadily at an annual rate of about 1% during the past 100 years [1]. All of these would lead to the water shortage problem that is already pessimistically even severer, and seriously hinders the sustainable development of social economy
Managing water resources is an effective way to deal with the above challenges
Summary
Economic development and consumption upgrade, global water consumption has increased by six times, and it has been continuing to grow steadily at an annual rate of about 1% during the past 100 years [1]. All of these would lead to the water shortage problem that is already pessimistically even severer, and seriously hinders the sustainable development of social economy. It is definitely necessary to put forward a comprehensive model to deal with dynamic variabilities and uncertainties in water resources system as well as the contradiction between different users, so as to improve the management efficiency and the users’ satisfaction
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