A Fuzzy Approach to the Synthesis of Cognitive Maps for Modeling Decision Making in Complex Systems

Abstract

The object of this study is fuzzy cognitive modeling as a means of studying semistructured socio-economic systems. The features of constructing cognitive maps, providing the ability to choose management decisions in complex semistructured socio-economic systems, are described. It is shown that further improvement of technologies necessary for developing decision support systems and their practical use is still relevant. This work aimed to improve the accuracy of cognitive modeling of semistructured systems based on a fuzzy cognitive map of structuring nonformalized situations (MSNS) with the evaluation of root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean average squared error (MASE) coefficients. In order to achieve the goal, the following main methods were used: systems analysis methods, fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets theory postulates, theory of integral wavelet transform, correlation and autocorrelation analyses. As a result, a new methodology for constructing MSNS was proposed—a map of structuring nonformalized situations that combines the positive properties of previous fuzzy cognitive maps. The solution of modeling problems based on this methodology should increase the reliability and quality of analysis and modeling of semistructured systems and processes under uncertainty. The analysis using open datasets proved that compared to the classical ARIMA, SVR, MLP, and Fuzzy time series models, our proposed model provides better performance in terms of MASE and RMSE metrics, which confirms its advantage. Thus, it is advisable to use our proposed algorithm in the future as a mathematical basis for developing software tools for the analysis and modeling of problems in semistructured systems and processes. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-02-012 Full Text: PDF