A Friend in Need: The Impact of the Syrian Civil War on Syria's Clients (A Principal-Agent Approach)

Abstract

When a regional sponsor of militant movements experiences profound domestic instability, what happens to its clients? This paper explores this question by examining the case of Syria and its clients using a principal–agent approach. It examines three types of principal—single, collective, and multiple—focusing on the varying effects that these relationships have on the agents involved and arguing that each type of principal presents prospective agents with a trade-off between a loss of autonomy and a loss of internal cohesion. By comparing the effects of Syrian sponsorship on nonstate actors who have served as Syrian agents at various points in the evolution of the regime, I demonstrate that each type of principal has distinct advantages and risks for its agents. The paper concludes by outlining five possible outcomes of the current uprising in Syria for the Asad regime's clients, based on the uprising's impact on the regime as a principal.